US tariffs: from the transatlantic deal to replacement duties
Two months of US trade policy: the EU–US deal vote, the 'forced labour' tariffs, the appeal ruling, then July's pivot to new duties under a different legal authority. What touches an exporter, dated and sourced.
Prior context — outside delfee's monitoring window, from references cited in the coverage
2025The US tariff cycle: Section 232 steel and aluminium duties, a 200% threat on European wine and spirits (March), then the 15% US–EU framework.
Early 2026'Bridge' duties maintained during negotiations; litigation ongoing over the legal basis of the 10% global tariff.
After years of resistance, Brasília moves closer to Beijing in response to the US tariffs. A durable reorientation of flows: tariff risk becomes market-reallocation risk.
Replacement tariffs: a new legal authority as 'bridge' duties expire
As the 'bridge' duties expire, Washington imposes replacement tariffs on its biggest partners using a different legal authority. The period's coverage peak — and the point where the applicable duty level actually changes.
Brasília announces reciprocal duties after its exports are targeted. The sequence shifts from unilateral threats to a retaliation cycle — the scenario that widens risk beyond the targeted markets alone.
Ottawa calls it a 'direct violation' of the deal, weighs 'all options'
Prime Minister Carney calls the new tariffs a direct violation of the trade agreement; Ottawa says it is weighing all options. Coverage notes the impact on US agricultural regions.
Tariff threat against Canada; orange juice excluded from Brazil duties
Trump threatens Canada with new duties citing wildfire smoke, while orange juice is excluded from the Brazil tariffs. A sharp illustration of product-by-product inclusion and exemption risk.
Beijing warns Washington; Brazil pushes for a deal before the deadline
China warns the US over the forced-labour tariffs while Brazilian business bodies press for a deal before the 15 July deadline. Deadlines become exporters' real calendar.
European Parliament approves the transatlantic trade deal
MEPs pass the deal ahead of the US deadline — 'Europe bows to pressure while warning of future chaos', per the coverage. It stabilises the framework for EU exporters without closing the subject.
An appeals court allows the 10% global tariff to stand for now. The legal basis remains contested — one to watch for anyone whose pricing depends on the duty level.
'Forced labour' tariffs proposed; EU and China call them unjustified
Washington proposes new forced-labour-linked duties targeting several Southeast Asian economies; Brussels and Beijing reject the allegations. First signal that the transatlantic deal does not extinguish tariff risk for supply chains.
European wine & spirits, March 2025 — The 200% duty threat froze US orders within days: importers halted, shipments cancelled before anything took effect. The threat, not only the measure, moves the order book.
Steel & aluminium (Section 232), 2018 — The precedent for sector duties justified on national-security grounds: country-by-country exemptions negotiated, then prolonged litigation — the same legal pattern replayed in 2026.
Airbus–Boeing (WTO), 2019–2021 — WTO-authorised retaliation duties hit products unrelated to the dispute — wine, cheese, machinery. A reminder that tariff exposure does not follow the exporter's own sector logic.
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