···
← delfee

Trump’s new tariffs, stock market intervention, mega IPOs

trade_policyUnited StatesSCMP24 Jul, 09:01 UTC

Context

The US imposed tariffs as high as 12.5 per cent on 60 trading partners, including China, after President Donald Trump adopted a different method for pursuing his global trade war. The levies, which are related to forced labour, replaced a temporary 10 per cent global tariff that expired on Friday. The 10 per cent tax was imposed after previous Trump tariffs were struck down by the US Supreme Court. Trump’s new taxes, targeting imports from 80-plus countries, can probably withstand legal...

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 24 Jul, 09:05 UTC