Most Americans say US has not achieved war goals in Iran, survey finds
geopolitical_conflict_sentimentMiddle EastSCMP4h ago
Context
Most Americans believe the Donald Trump administration has been unable to achieve its war objectives against Iran, according to a Marquette Law School poll released on Wednesday, as negotiations continue to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end five months of hostilities. A striking 88 per cent of respondents said the US had not achieved its goals in the war with Iran, up seven percentage points from April, while only 12 per cent believed it had met its objectives, down from 21 per cent. The poll...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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