Middle East crisis live: Bessent claims US could reach Hormuz deal with Iran by tomorrow
geopolitical_crisis_negotiationMiddle EastThe Guardian1h ago
Context
Comments from US Treasury secretary come despite statements from Iran denying that any negotiations are taking place The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said Washington could reach a deal with Iran by tomorrow to reopen the strait of Hormuz. “We are in talks with the Iranians, and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalised position in this conflict,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC. Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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