How Ukraine’s devastating attacks on Putin’s oil refineries brought the war to Russia’s doorstep

energy_supply_shockRussiaThe Independent23 Sept, 05:29 UTC

Context

How Ukraine’s devastating attacks on Putin’s oil refineries brought the war to Russia’s doorstep The Independent Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2026 understandingwar.org Ukraine fires over 1,000 drones at Russia, including 'largest ever' attack on Moscow PBS Moscow oil refinery output halted after Sunday drone attack, sources say Reuters Video Ukrainian drones and missiles target Moscow: Officials ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal

Severity: the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction: ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move: the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe: the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction: how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 23 Sept, 07:58 UTC