From US Fed rates to China’s global export share: 4 figures shaping markets
monetary_policyGlobalSCMP3h ago
Context
The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, followed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Japan, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back below 5 per cent. Here are some of the figures that have drawn the most market attention this week. Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023 The US Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on Thursday to raise rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75 to...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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