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More Red Sea shipments disrupted as Rubio says Iran not serious about talks

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastAl-Monitor22 Jul, 03:46 UTC

Context

By Jana Choukeir, Elwely Elwelly and Michael Martina DUBAI/MANILA, July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Iran is not serious about talks to end their war, as the widening conflict disrupted two of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Four tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Wednesday, a day after three others had done so, following threats to block Saudi shipping from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, who control the coast on the southern route out.

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 22 Jul, 11:50 UTC