French bond sell-off ‘reminiscent of the euro crisis’ as Paris proposes cuts and tax rises – business live
Context
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news France’s government did try to cool the situation yesterday, by proposing a budget for next year including €43bn in cuts and tax rises. Under the proposed plan, the tax burden would rise while spending growth would be slowed through slashing state spending, and capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries. France’s fiscal package would prevent the deficit from reaching 6.5% of GDP next year, but it would not stabilise public debt. With a difficult political process ahead, French bonds are likely to remain under pressure, while the threshold for ECB intervention remains high Markets stumbled yesterday as we began Q4, with mounting signs of financial stress focused on Europe. In fact, the daily moves were reminiscent of the Euro crisis in many respects, with sovereign contagion a big talking point. 9am BST: UN’s FAO Food Price Index 10am BST: Eurozone flash inflation reading for September 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls employment report 3pm BST: US factory orders report for August Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 2 Oct, 06:58 UTC