First Thing: Second day of US strikes on Iran as Trump says Tehran ‘behaving very badly’
Context
Explosions reported in southern Iran in most extensive exchange of fire since interim ceasefire. Plus the complicated legacy of beat poet Allen Ginsberg Good morning. The US military carried out strikes on Iran for a second day, hours after President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war was “over”. Iranian state media reported explosions in the port city of Bandar Abbas in the strait of Hormuz; in Sirik, another southern coastal city; and the south-western Bushehr province, home to Iran’s nuclear-power-plant complex. US Central Command confirmed the strikes. On Tuesday, three cargo ships transiting the strait of Hormuz were attacked, leading to the most extensive exchange of fire between the two sides since the interim deal was signed last month. At the Nato summit in Ankara yesterday, Trump said: “Anything that happens is going to happen very fast” and that the latest strikes would not result in “long-term” military action. “They are behaving very badly,” Trump said, accusing Iran of launching drones and a missile at ships. What are the economic impacts of the renewed hostilities? US stock markets fell on Wednesday, and Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, jumped more than 5% to crest $80 a barrel. The International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3%, citing conflict in the Middle East. Jorge León, the head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: “Tanker traffic through the strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran.” Who could replace Platner? Maine Democrats have until 27 July to select a replacement to face Susan Collins in a race widely seen as pivotal to control of the Senate. The state party said it would hold a nominating convention to pick a new candidate. Troy Jackson, Janet Mills, Valli Geiger and Shenna Bellows are among the names in the frame – with Joseph Gedeon profiling them and assessing their prospects in this piece. Continue reading...
What it means
The confirmed halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — as cited by Rystad Energy — is a genuinely new escalation beyond prior signals, which already called crude and defense higher on tension alone. Crude jumping 5%+ to $80 reflects this acute chokepoint disruption, and airlines historically face margin pressure when a major fuel-supply route is functionally closed. Defense and gold moves were already called in prior signals and are not re-asserted here.
Causal chain
- Exp. moveTimeframeConviction
- Brent crude (BZ)$49.66L1d
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has 'essentially stopped' per Rystad Energy — this is a confirmed, acute chokepoint disruption beyond prior signals of mere threat or tension, validating and extending the crude supply-risk premium
• no significant moveabnormal -2.3%·1 trading day - Airlines (UAL, DAL)$123.56M1d
Confirmed halt in Hormuz tanker traffic raises jet-fuel cost risk materially beyond the prior tension-level calls
• no significant moveabnormal +0.3%·1 trading day
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 9 Jul, 12:27 UTC