The Age of Strategic Exclusion
Context
Major powers are increasingly trying to shut out their rivals. Russia invaded Ukraine in part to prevent the latter’s further integration with the West. The United States is restricting China’s access to advanced semiconductors and encouraging allies to do the same. China’s Belt and Road Initiative secures privileged positions in strategic infrastructure and economic relationships. Though these examples vary in aims and methods, they reflect a growing willingness of major powers to restrict rivals’ access and influence.I use the term ‘strategic exclusion’ to describe policies that move competition from shared access to restricted access. Territorial control is its most extreme The post The Age of Strategic Exclusion appeared first on War on the Rocks.
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
Get the next signal the moment it breaks.
The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.
Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 14 Sept, 07:33 UTC