Goldman Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Middle East War Drags On
Context
Crude oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel towards the end of the year if the war in the Middle East extends and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for longer, Goldman Sachs has warned in its latest prediction in response to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up," Goldman's commodity analysts said in a note, as quoted by Bloomberg. This is not the first bullish oil price prediction from the investment…
What it means
Goldman Sachs has reiterated a bullish oil call in the context of an ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure risk — but delfee has already flagged Brent crude upside across 140 prior signals on this same situation. This headline adds a specific $120 price target but no genuinely new supply disruption, escalation, or actor. The move is already reflected in prior signals and current prices.
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 21 Jul, 05:45 UTC