Every Chokepoint That Isn't Hormuz
energy_supply_shockMiddle EastOilPrice4h ago
Context
For six months the entire conversation about oil logistics has been about one strait, and you can hardly blame anyone for that. Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, when the war between Iran and the U.S. and Israel started, and the EIA reckons only 4.9 million barrels a day of crude and liquids made it through in the second quarter. In the last quarter of 2025 that number was 21.6 million. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in June that management of the strait “will never return to the way it was before the…
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 4h ago