First Thing: US continues attacks on Iran ‘in honor’ of dead service members | Martin Belam

Context

The US has launched a ninth night of strikes targeting Iran. Plus, the glorious art deco LA library celebrates 100 years Good morning. The US launched a ninth night of strikes targeting Iran early Monday, after announcing the death of another American service member – the third in recent days. Donald Trump said the new attacks were “in honor” of the dead. Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in a statement of “unforgettable lessons” if the US kept attacking. Trump has threatened to target Iran’s power stations and bridges to try to compel Tehran to loosen its hold on the strait of Hormuz. Last week the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The military on Saturday said it had redirected six ships and disabled one since then. Oil prices rose at the opening of trading in Asia on Monday, with the price of Brent crude climbing 2.72% to $90.50 a barrel. Where have US service personnel been killed? The service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of what was called unexploded ordnance on a downed Iranian attack drone. It was the third US death in recent days, after two military service personnel were killed in an Iranian attack on a Jordanian airbase on Friday, with a third missing in action. Since the war began, 17 US service members have been killed. What is the US mission against Iran? The war was started in February when the former Iranian supreme leader was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes. Trump has indicated several motives for the war, including preventing Tehran from gaining nuclear weapons and trying to force regime change. On Sunday, the US energy secretary, Chris Wright, argued the mission has shifted toward ensuring oil shipments can move through Hormuz, after the US-Iran ceasefire has faltered. What did Mamdani say? “I believe that Netanyahu belongs in The Hague. He’s a war criminal who has been charged by the ICC, and what you will find is that is an opinion that is held by many, purely because of what his actions have wrought over these past many years. Whatever the law allows me to do in New York City, that’s what we will do.” What is Netanyahu accused of by the ICC? The warrant which the ICC issued for the arrest of Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders accused them of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, including “starvation as a method of warfare, and … murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”. Continue reading...

What it means

This headline describes the ninth night of US strikes on Iran — a continuation of an ongoing conflict that delfee has already covered with 29 prior signals. Brent and WTI crude have already been called up in the most recent chain, and the Strait of Hormuz risk premium is reflected in current prices (Brent already trading at $90.50, up 2.72%). While rhetoric remains elevated, this strike wave adds no genuinely new channel or surprise escalation beyond what has already been priced in.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 20 Jul, 13:45 UTC