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Wall Street thought the Powell hike was over. Now Kevin Warsh has his ‘back against the wall’

monetary_policyUnited StatesFortune11 Sept, 17:14 UTC

Context

Wall Street thought the Powell hike was over. Now Kevin Warsh has his ‘back against the wall’  Fortune Analysis: Hot inflation data sets up a Fed rate hike. What happens if Warsh wavers  CNBC The choice facing the Federal Reserve  The Economist Warsh Faces Intensifying Pressure to Raise Rates After Hot CPI  Bloomberg.com Kevin Warsh under mounting pressure to raise rates as US inflation persists  Financial Times

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 11 Sept, 19:48 UTC