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Iran will halt attacks as long as US maintains pause, Iranian source says after Trump calls off strikes

military_conflict_de_escalationMiddle EastReuters26 Jul, 14:50 UTC

Context

Iran will halt attacks as long as US maintains pause, Iranian source says after Trump calls off strikes  Reuters Vance, Caine raised concerns about escalating war in Iran, sources say as US pauses consecutive nights of strikes  CNN US and Iran pause attacks amid efforts to resume negotiations on interim ceasefire deal  kare11.com Trump Holds Off on Major War Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns  The New York Times US strikes 'on a hold,' as talks, battle for Strait of Hormuz control loom with Iran  Fox News

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 26 Jul, 17:23 UTC