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Why Putin Is Fighting On, Even as His Problems Multiply

military_conflictEuropeThe New York Times28 Aug, 21:22 UTC

Context

Why Putin Is Fighting On, Even as His Problems Multiply  The New York Times Putin Moves to Escalate War in Ukraine as Talks at Dead End  Bloomberg.com Putin Could Deploy Tactical Nukes In Ukraine As 'Last Resort': Report  NDTV Why Even a Cornered Putin Won’t Press the Red Button  Foreign Policy Putin orders military to plan for offensive towards Kyiv and Chernihiv  Yahoo

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 29 Aug, 09:32 UTC