···
← delfee

Oil touches $90 as Iran hits tankers

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastFinancial Times20 Jul, 09:08 UTC

Context

Crude later falls back after Tehran says it has received proposals from mediators about the war

What it means

This headline is a continuation of an ongoing Hormuz-area shipping threat that delfee has tracked for 46 days and already called higher crude. Critically, the intraday narrative itself reversed — oil touched $90 then fell back after Iran signaled openness to mediation proposals, suggesting the spike was transitory and the net information is de-escalatory rather than new escalation. No genuinely new, sustained market channel is introduced here beyond what prior signals already captured.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 20 Jul, 09:20 UTC