Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high as central bankers fight inflation; retail sales rise in Great Britain – business live
Context
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news Despite the inflationary squeeze on households, retail sales across Great Britain have risen over the summer. The heatwave, a pick-up in web shopping, and the joys (and pain and disappointment!) of the men’s football World Cup, helped to lift spending over the three months to August, new data shows. “Retail sales increased in the latest three months, with a particularly strong June for online outlets helping to boost their sales across the period. Food store sales also rose, with supermarkets doing well in July and August. “Meanwhile, retailers selling alcohol and beverages performed well across all three months, which they attributed to promotions, the hot weather and the World Cup.” So although the central bank reiterated that it will continue raising rates if economic and inflation conditions evolve as projected, the market has reacted to the two high profile dissenters. The Yen is -0.72% lower at 157.10, having been at around 153.40 at the start of the week and the JGB curve has steepened, with 2yrs -2.2bps and 30yrs +3.2bps 7am BST: Retail sales data across Great Britain for August 10am BST: Eurozone construction output for July Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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