Trump says hasn’t decided on major Iran strikes, Tehran getting ‘serious’ in talks
Context
Trump says hasn’t decided on major Iran strikes, Tehran getting ‘serious’ in talks The Times of Israel Crude oil prices shoot up after Red Sea joins Strait of Hormuz as Iran war's second choke point Fox News Trump Meets With Top Advisers as He Weighs a Major Escalation in Iran The New York Times As signals of a ‘massive’ US attack mount, experts skeptical it will break Iran The Hill Trump Is Losing Patience Over an Iran War With No Clear End in Sight WSJ
What it means
No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 25 Jul, 19:53 UTC