···
← delfee

Iran war spreads to Red Sea and Caspian, Gulf quiet as US forgoes strikes

military_conflictMiddle EastReuters25 Jul, 23:18 UTC

Context

Iran war spreads to Red Sea and Caspian, Gulf quiet as US forgoes strikes  Reuters Live updates: US-Iran war; Trump says he doesn’t ‘think it’s time yet’ for deal  CNN Iran War Live Updates: U.S.-Iran Strikes Abate as War Enters Latest Crossroads  The New York Times Trump ordered military not to conduct strikes in Iran Friday  Axios Airstrikes have paused and talks are pressing forward. But can the US and Iran take the off-ramp?  AP News

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 26 Jul, 04:33 UTC