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Big Oil’s War-Related Profits Anger Governments

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastOilPrice12 Jul, 23:00 UTC

Context

Supermajors are set to report bumper profits for the second quarter thanks to the surge in oil and gas prices, driven higher by the hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran. This is a problem for governments—notably the Trump administration, but politicians in Europe are angry at Big Oil’s good fortune again. Oil prices soared fourfold earlier this year after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted the latter to shut traffic via the Strait of Hormuz—something Tehran had been threatening it would do for decades…

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 12 Jul, 23:00 UTC