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Live Updates: Iran Insists It Controls Strait of Hormuz as It Launches New Strikes

military_conflictMiddle EastNew York Times13 Jul, 09:23 UTC

Context

The Iranian military said it had fired at U.S. targets across the Persian Gulf as the two sides engaged in another day of hostilities. President Trump on Sunday denied Iran’s claim to have closed the Strait of Hormuz.

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 13 Jul, 09:30 UTC