Trump ordered military not to conduct strikes in Iran Friday
Context
President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue. Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short of a return to major combat operations — the current level of U.S. strikes has reached the limit of its effectiveness. If Trump orders a return to strikes, the U.S. military can mobilize on relatively short notice. The U.S. military is still preparing plans for a possible return to major combat operations, but Trump hasn't given orders to move in that direction, the sources said. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Driving the news: Every afternoon for the last two weeks, Trump has approved strike plans submitted by the military. They were conducted within hours. On Friday, Trump received a similar plan but did not give a green light. Instead, he directed the military not to conduct strikes, the sources said. Shortly after he gave the Friday directive, Trump told reporters at the White House that he has the option of continuing strikes or even escalating them, including "knocking out everything they have." But he made clear that he thinks the "smarter strategy" is to "make a deal" with Iran. "We're talking to [the Iranians] right now. I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by. We're locked and loaded and ready to go, but we're talking to them," Trump said. Later on Friday, during his remarks at the White House Correspondents Association dinner, Trump said he didn't think Iran is ready to make a deal at the moment, "but I'm willing to listen." State of play: Trump's order to hold fire was given several hours after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran Friday for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two regional sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress has been made in the talks and that an agreement between Oman and Iran could be reached over the weekend. President Trump would then have to decide whether to accept the proposed deal.
What it means
No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 25 Jul, 17:03 UTC