Bank of England expected to raise interest rates for first time in three years today – business live
Context
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. Predicting a central bank’s actions can be risky, but there will certainly be surprise in the City of London today if the Bank of England doesn’t raise interest rates at midday. The BoE is primarily responding to higher energy prices, but macro data have also turned more hawkish. Growth has been resilient, the labour market has stabilized, and core inflation has edged higher. However, the economy does not look overheated, and pass-through from higher energy prices into core inflation has been modest overall. We expect an 8-1 vote in favour of the move, with only Alan Taylor dissenting. Although several rate setters will vote for the hike reluctantly, developments in the real economy justify it. Strong economic growth and a tentative stabilisation of the labour market suggest that an interest rate hike will restrain economic activity only modestly. 9am GMT: UK car sales report for October 9.30am GMT: UK construction PMI for October Noon GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision 12.30pm GMT: Bank of England press conference 1.30pm: US jobless claims report Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 5 Nov, 07:34 UTC