Inside Putin’s $135 Billion Arctic Gamble That Could Save His Ukraine War
energy_supply_shockGlobalOilPrice1h ago
Context
Back in early February 2022, Vladimir Putin had his first in-person meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for nearly two years, at the opening of the Winter Olympics ceremony in Beijing. To avoid disrupting this landmark event for Xi and to allow China to finalise the multiple hoarding deals for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in which it had been engaged over the previous year, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Putin had delayed the imminent invasion of Ukraine. At that meeting,…
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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