U.S.-Iran talks yield little, raising odds of renewed combat

Context

Efforts this week by Qatari mediators to broker a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran have made little progress, with neither side willing to budge, according to three sources familiar with the talks. Why it matters: The stalemate bolsters the belief on both sides that a renewed military conflict is becoming more likely. U.S. officials think President Trump could order a return to major combat operations after the midterms. Qatari officials will keep trying but are growing increasingly frustrated with both sides, two of the sources said. Driving the news: Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi met Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his team in New York for several hours. A source with knowledge said they discussed a two-page Qatari compromise proposal. According to two other sources, the Qatari plan was aimed at addressing both Iran's demand for lifting the U.S. naval blockade and the U.S. demand for Iranian nuclear concessions. On Monday evening, al-Thawadi held talks in Washington with Trump envoy Jared Kushner and other U.S. officials. Vice President Vance also attended a small part of the meeting. The White House declined to comment. The intrigue: On Monday morning, the White House was hopeful of progress. U.S. officials briefed several media outlets, including Axios, that the talks were "positive and constructive" and that Iran "indicated they are flexible on the nuclear issues." The officials even said Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in return for concrete steps to pare back its nuclear program. But several hours later, while the Qatari officials were still at the White House, Trump posted on Truth Social that he offered nothing to Iran. State of play: One of the sources said there was no significant movement in the talks on Monday. "It is stuck. The Iranians are asking for things the U.S. can't accept and the U.S. thinks it is winning so there is no need for compromise," the source said. Other regional mediators, including Pakistan and Egypt, urged Iran to agree to nuclear concessions. But the Iranians said they would only consider doing so after the U.S. agrees to return to the June memorandum of understanding, another source with knowledge said. The other side: Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tuesday that Iran has conveyed its terms to the U.S. but that "Trump is incapable of making a decision," per the Iranian press. "Trump is trapped in a quagmire in which he can neither negotiate nor fight," Rezaei said. What he's saying: "They are doing very poorly. I don't know if they are ready to give up yet. They will give up. This is to stop a nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters on Tuesday.

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 29 Sept, 22:33 UTC