US completes 3rd round of strikes against Iran
military_conflictMiddle EastChina12 Jul, 10:15 UTC
What it means
A third round of US strikes against Iran is a continuation of an ongoing conflict that delfee has already covered across 13 prior signals, with Brent crude and gold already called higher in recent chains. Unless this round triggers a genuinely new escalation (e.g., Iranian retaliation against shipping, Strait of Hormuz closure, or a new actor entering the conflict), the market impact of successive strike rounds is already reflected in current prices and prior signals. No new causal chain is warranted.
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
Get the next signal the moment it breaks.
The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.
Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 12 Jul, 10:42 UTC