Oil prices rise as US-Iran ceasefire ends; UK wage growth slows amid cost of living squeeze – business live
Context
Brent crude climbs above $91 a barrel Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the global economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Oil prices have risen, trading above $90 a barrel, as hopes faded for a deal to end war in the Middle East, heightening fears about energy supplies. Regular wage growth has remained broadly stable in recent months. However, private sector pay growth has continued to ease, while public sector pay growth remains elevated due to the timing of the latest NHS pay awards. Today’s labour market figures continue to point to a softening UK jobs market. Regular private-sector pay growth, which is closely watched by Bank of England officials, eased to 2.8% from 2.9% previously. Meanwhile, the more timely indication from PAYE payroll data showed employment fell again, this time by 13,000. 9.30am BST: UK Private rents and house prices for August 10am BST: Germany ZEW confidence for August 1.30pm BST: US Housing starts for July Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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