AI titans’ ‘circular deals’ are starting to look like ‘daisy chains’
financial_stability_riskUnited StatesSCMP7 Sept, 12:30 UTC
Context
The “circular deals” among AI titans increasingly resemble the “daisy chains” of the 1980s savings-and-loan crisis. Forty years ago, interconnected transactions obscured the dangers, multiplied systemic risks and helped inflate asset values before roughly a third of US thrift banks failed. Today’s financial engineering – an incestuous ecosystem of interlocking multi-year commitments to provide financing, buy semiconductors, secure gigawatts of power and lease data centres – could meet a similar...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 7 Sept, 12:33 UTC