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Trump says US, Iran agree to continue talks but ceasefire over

geopolitical_escalation_middle_eastMiddle EastAl-Monitor11 Jul, 05:46 UTC

Context

By Steve Holland and Enas Alashray WASHINGTON/CAIRO, July 11 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran had agreed to continue talks despite an escalation of hostilities this week but he declared that the ceasefire reached between the two sides last month was over. The United States also stepped up demands on Friday that Iran stop attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, where recent hostilities have pushed oil prices higher, a politically sensitive issue for Trump ahead of November congressional elections.

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 11 Jul, 05:50 UTC