Trump Claims Hormuz Control, US CPI Data on Deck | The Opening Trade 8/12/2026
Context
President Donald Trump claimed the US had “total control over the Hormuz Strait,” as Washington and Tehran hardened their stances in deadlocked negotiations over the waterway. “We own it,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington late Tuesday. “And at some point, maybe they’ll do something, and then they get blown away.” US consumer prices data for July will be in focus as higher oil prices raise concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to hike interest rates. Treasuries steadied with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note little changed. The Opening Trade has everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. With analysis you won't find anywhere else, we break down the biggest stories of the day and speak to top guests who have skin in the game. Hosted by Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson and Tom Mackenzie. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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