US long-term borrowing costs hit 25-year high, as inflation fears hit bond sale – business live
Context
Rolling coverage of the latest and economic news, as US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001 Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, agrees that the rise in US borrowing costs is “problematic” for the Trump Treasury, adding (via the FT): “They have to fund the government at more expensive levels.” “Investors are being asked to absorb a growing supply of government debt globally at a time when deficits remain large, inflation uncertainty persists.” “If investors continue demanding greater compensation for inflation and fiscal risks, long-term yields could move higher and away from 5% even if Treasury auctions remain well covered.” 10am BST: Eurozone flash GDP report for Q2 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for July 3pm BST: University of Michigan’s US consumer confidence index Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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