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Kevin Warsh may be the adult in the room. But can he calm the US economy?

monetary_policyUnited StatesThe Guardian3h ago

Context

Fed chair presided over unanimous decision to raise interest rates despite intense campaign from White House In the end, Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve acquitted itself well. For all the uncertainty he had sparked at the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, when he refused to provide any indication of what he was prepared to do to tame stubborn inflation, the chair on Wednesday presided over a unanimous decision to raise interest rates for the first time in three years. “Today’s action starts to show that we’re serious about this,” he said at the press conference after the meeting, with “this” meaning inflation in excess of the Fed’s 2% target for over five years. Welcome though it was, his embrace of economic orthodoxy nonetheless did little to dispel the Keystone Cops quality of governance in Donald Trump’s US. Continue reading...

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 3h ago