Iran won’t reopen Strait of Hormuz without US concessions and other Mideast developments

Severity

the event's market impact, 1–5

Direction

↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset

Exp. move

the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:

Ssmall<1%

Mmoderate1–5%

Llarge>5%

Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).

Timeframe

the window we measure over:

1dshort

5dmedium

21dlong

Conviction

how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:

low

average

strong

Context