Why Isn’t the Price of Oil Even Higher?
energy_supply_shockGlobalPaul Krugman | Substack13 Aug, 10:31 UTC
Context
Why Isn’t the Price of Oil Even Higher? Paul Krugman | Substack Live updates: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains low as world rapidly burns through oil stockpiles CNN Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt CNBC Oil prices edge up as investors weigh US-Iran talks deadlock against lower demand Reuters ‘An unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options’ if the U.S. wants to get oil flowing again Fortune
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
Get the next signal the moment it breaks.
The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.
Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 3h ago