Oil prices rise and gold hits two-month high after Trump makes new deal demands on Iran – business live
Context
US president demands compensation for damage incurred by US, complicating standoff with Tehran Jefferies analyst Mohit Kumar said: We are back to the situation where there is no war ongoing, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. There is little official data to analyse the economic pressure on Iran. Estimates suggest that inflation is running north of 100%, with heavy pressure on essential commodities including food prices. The currency has depreciated by over 95%, though it is not a freely convertible currency and official data is not available. We’re going to ask for money for the damage they’ve done over a 50-year period. So if there’s damages to be paid, I think Iran should pay those damages. This is going to be almost a war of attrition now. You probably can see the [oil] market sitting around the $75 to $95 range while we wait to see who blinks first. We still retain the view that the Fed or the Bank of England will not hike rates, though the European Central Bank may be tempted to deliver another hike at the September meeting. Tomorrow’s inflation data would be key for setting the tome of markets for the coming weeks. Our view is that this month’s and next month’s inflation data would be benign and would offer some room for [Fed chair Kevin] Warsh not to hike rates. 1.15pm BST: US ADP employment change for last week 3pm BST: US Existing home sales for July Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
Get the next signal the moment it breaks.
The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.
Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 2h ago