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US 30-Year Bond Enters September on Its Worst Stretch Since 2006

rates_market_stressUnited StatesBloomberg1 Sept, 06:51 UTC

Context

US 30-Year Bond Enters September on Its Worst Stretch Since 2006  Bloomberg.com Think Treasurys Are Having a Rough Summer? It’s Even Uglier Abroad  WSJ What’s the fiscal hit from higher yields?  Financial Times Explainer-Why the bond market may be resetting expectations about the US  Yahoo Finance Editorial: Higher interest rates send a warning to everyday Americans — cut your debt  Chicago Tribune

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 1 Sept, 10:02 UTC