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Trump promises new Iran talks as Tehran touts Hormuz shipping deal with Oman | First Thing

geopolitical_tensions_resolutionMiddle EastThe Guardian3 Aug, 11:36 UTC

Context

US president says he called off another US attack on Iran as part of a push for an agreement. Plus why Pokémon Go is still bring global joy ten years on Good morning. Donald Trump said talks with Iran would happen on Monday but declined to set a deadline for an agreement after earlier saying he had called ⁠off an imminent attack. For its part, Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman over a new route through the strait of Hormuz, and that it had no plans to receive a delegation or send an Iranian one to any talks. On Saturday night, the US president claimed on social media that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for time to complete a deal ⁠that would lead to “the immediate, complete and total” reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”. Trump added that Tehran must “rapidly make a deal”. What has Iran said about the strait? The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, told state television on Sunday that a deal was close with Oman over a new route through the waterway. “We are now going to reach an understanding on a route acceptable to both sides – neither the northern route nor the southern route – but one that respects the sovereign rights of both sides and safeguards our national interests and security,” he said in an interview. How many measles cases has the US seen? His remark came as the incidence of measles crossed a milestone – the US has officially recorded 2,371 confirmed infections so far this year, surpassing the total tally in 2025 of 2,289. Taken together, in the past two years there has been more measles infections in the US than the rest of the 21st century combined. The last time a greater number of measles cases were recorded in a single year was in 1991. Continue reading...

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 3 Aug, 11:57 UTC