US, Iran Explore Phased Hormuz Deal
Context
Oil prices declined as US and Iranian negotiators explored a plan that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries were pushing for a breakthrough on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, a person familiar said. With geopolitics at the forefront as UNGA nears its end, we hear from Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN & Cuba's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernandez de Cossio. Mekala Krishnan, Partner at the McKinsey Global Institute, discusses the lessons learned from the Hormuz closure. Kelsey Berro of JPMorgan Asset Management joins to examine the state of bond markets. Plus - George Atallah, former NFLPA Assistant Executive Director, weighs in on the NFL's first game in Rio and student-athlete compensation. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 25 Sept, 20:58 UTC