The China Trade Problem That Tariffs Alone Can't Fix
trade_policyGlobalBloomberg26 Sept, 12:02 UTC
Context
China ran a $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, many of its companies don't need to make a profit, and its exports are growing at two to three times the rate of the global economy. Michael Froman, former US Trade Representative under President Obama and now president of the Council on Foreign Relations, tells us why Xi Jinping sees a consumer-led economy as a political threat, and what happens when China finally runs out of countries willing to buy. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 26 Sept, 12:18 UTC