FTSE 100 to fall from record high after Fed holds interest rates and Iran attacks; Rolls-Royce expects higher profits – business live
Context
Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as global stock markets drop after US central bank keeps interest rates steady Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets. London’s FTSE 100 is set to fall when it opens after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady despite the increasing expectations of inflation, while Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on Iran promised to add fuel to the price rise fire. This rise in yields ended up weighing on equities after some big intra-day swings. The S&P 500 went from trading more than half a percent down pre-FOMC to higher on the day during Warsh’s press conference but then saw a sharp drop in the final hour of trading to close -1.52% lower. Equities were also weighed down by another rout in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index slumping by -5.33%. 9am BST: Germany GDP growth (second quarter; previous: 0.3% quarter-on-quarter; consensus: 0.1%) 10am BST: Eurozone GDP growth (second quarter; prev.: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter; cons.: 0.2%) 10am BST: Eurozone unemployment (June; prev.: 6.2%; cons.: 6.2%) 12pm BST: Bank of England interest rate decision (prev.: 3.75%; cons.: 3.75%) 1pm BST: Germany inflation (July; prev.: 2.3%; cons.: 2.7%) 1:30pm BST: US core personal consumption expenditure index (June; prev.: 0.3%; cons.: 0.2%) 1:30pm BST: US GDP growth (second quarter; prev.: 2.1%; cons.: 2.1%) Continue reading...
What it means
The Fed holding rates while signaling inflation concerns has historically been associated with higher yields and equity weakness, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like semiconductors. Iran tensions add a crude oil risk premium. The FTSE 100 is historically correlated with global equity sentiment and is expected to open lower in sympathy with Wall Street's sharp decline. (Lower-conviction channels were filtered out by our selectivity bar.)
Causal chain
- Exp. moveTimeframeConviction
- S&P 500 (SPY)$741.69M1d
Fed holds rates steady amid rising inflation expectations, sending yields higher and triggering a risk-off equity selloff
- Semiconductors (SOXX)$504.53L1d
Semiconductor stocks rout deepens on combined rate/risk-off pressure
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 30 Jul, 06:54 UTC