···
← delfee

Warsh's first Jackson Hole: Bond yields, a Treasury rescue and inflation that refuses to fall

monetary_policyUnited StatesEuronews26 Aug, 14:13 UTC

Context

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole address on Friday with long-term borrowing costs elevated, inflation above target and the US Treasury already intervening in bond markets to do what monetary policy has not.

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 26 Aug, 14:17 UTC