···
← delfee

Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastReuters20 Jul, 12:15 UTC

Context

Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war  Reuters Oil touches $90 after Iran hits tankers  Financial Times Oil Markets on Edge as Houthi Rebels Intensify Threats to Shipping in the Middle East  The New York Times Stock Market Today: Chip Stocks Regain Ground, Powering Nasdaq  WSJ Oil tops $90 as Middle East fighting escalates  Axios

What it means

This headline is primarily an analytical piece explaining why oil hasn't surged despite 5 months of ongoing conflict — it adds no new supply shock, escalation, or actor beyond what delfee's prior signals already captured. The Brent crude upside call was made 46 days ago and is already reflected in current prices. No genuinely new market-moving information is present here.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 20 Jul, 14:05 UTC