US economic growth slows unexpectedly in second quarter
Context
US economic growth slows unexpectedly in second quarter Fox Business U.S. Economy Grew More Slowly in the Second Quarter The New York Times US Economic Growth Misses Estimates Despite Robust Consumers bloomberg.com Economy slowed in second quarter, while inflation improved The Washington Post US economy slowed more than expected as the Iran war took hold ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
What it means
An unexpected US GDP miss has historically been associated with a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields as markets price in Federal Reserve rate cuts, while broad equities face pressure from earnings uncertainty. Gold has tended to benefit from a combination of safe-haven demand and expectations of easier monetary policy. (Lower-conviction channels were filtered out by our selectivity bar.)
Causal chain
- Exp. moveTimeframeConviction
- US Dollar (DXY)$28.14M1d
Weaker-than-expected GDP raises recession fears and increases likelihood of Fed rate cuts
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 30 Jul, 13:15 UTC