US diesel crack surpasses US$100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
energy_supply_shockGlobalSCMP2h ago
Context
The US diesel crack, a key measure of refining profitability, hit an all-time high of US$102.20 a barrel on Monday as global supply disruptions from the wars in Iran and Ukraine run into peak agricultural consumption season. Measured as the premium of US diesel futures over US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, the US diesel crack was trading at US$99.82 a barrel, up 2.4 per cent from Friday. The crack has hit new intraday record highs in five of the last six sessions, reflecting...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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