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Live updates: Trump's tariffs set to kick in; White House Correspondents' dinner re-do

trade_policyUnited StatesThe Hill24 Jul, 12:56 UTC

Context

President Trump's 10 percent tariffs are set to expire on Friday, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced new levies on Thursday to replace them. The fresh import taxes –– ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent –– will hit 60 countries, accounting for 99 percent of U.S. imports. They are pegged to the elimination...

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 24 Jul, 13:03 UTC