···
← delfee

US producer prices post largest drop in 14 months; inflation risks still tilted to the upside

inflation_data_releaseUnited StatesReuters15 Jul, 16:32 UTC

Context

US producer prices post largest drop in 14 months; inflation risks still tilted to the upside  Reuters Inflation Slowed to 3.5% in June, as Americans Got a Break From Gasoline Prices  WSJ PPI Slides in June on Lower Oil Prices, Q2 Results Continue  Yahoo Finance Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June on big drop in gasoline  CNBC Morning Bid: Melting core  Reuters

What it means

This PPI release is a continuation of the ongoing US inflation data story delfee has already covered. The prior signals already called for Treasury and Nasdaq moves on softer inflation data, and markets had time to reprice. The 'risks still tilted upside' qualifier reduces the net new information content — this headline adds little beyond what was already reflected in prices and prior signals.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 15 Jul, 18:00 UTC