Deutsche Bank Says Stakes Are High Amid Risk of US 'Truss Moment'
fiscal_policy_crisisUnited StatesBloomberg27 Aug, 09:40 UTC
Context
Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank, discusses the outlook for bonds and equities amid concern over US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent debt-management tactics and ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Concern over rising US borrowing costs has led to comparisons with the collapse of former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss' government in 2022, following a disorderly bond-market selloff. Tarman speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 27 Aug, 09:47 UTC