Hari: Oil Prices to Keep Grinding Higher
Context
Vandana Hari, Founder of Vanda Insights, says oil prices are likely to continue a slow and steady climb as the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a cycle of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. She says crude futures are not fully reflecting the physical market tightness, pointing to diesel prices near $200 a barrel in Atlantic markets and warning of further scarcity in the coming weeks and months. Hari also says markets would remain cautious even if Hormuz reopened, given doubts over whether any de-escalation would prove sustainable. She speaks with Abeer Abu Omar on Horizons Middle East & Africa. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 7 Sept, 05:18 UTC