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Iran-US war latest: Trump ‘planning for wider war’ with Tehran after ninth night of strikes

military_conflictMiddle EastThe Independent20 Jul, 05:50 UTC

Context

Iran-US war latest: Trump ‘planning for wider war’ with Tehran after ninth night of strikes  The Independent Iran vows not a ‘single drop’ of oil or gas will pass strait of Hormuz as US carries out ninth night of strikes – Middle East crisis live  The Guardian Hormuz Closure Exposes Africa's Energy Dependence on Iran and China  Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com ‘Refine baby, refine’  Dialogue Earth Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure Intensifies as Vance Travels to Switzerland for Talks - Tax Rate Impact  dars.gov.et

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 20 Jul, 08:30 UTC